EURO Matchday 12 Preview

Group C & D are set to wrap up on the 12th matchday at the Euros. Will England wake up from their slumber? Can Austria triumph over the Netherlands? And will Poland go out with a bang?

Group C & D are set to wrap up on the 12th matchday at the Euros. Will England wake up from their slumber? Can Austria triumph over the Netherlands? And will Poland go out with a bang?

France v Poland

France failed to follow up their matchday 1 victory with another 3 points, playing out a 0:0 draw that was deserving of more. France registered 15 shots in an attacking onslaught, with Antoine Griezmann particularly leaving a handful of big chances go begging. It was an obvious storyline before kick-off, but following France’s 0:0 draw, the question marks around Kylian Mbappe’s fitness grew larger. France have now failed to win the last three matches where Mbappe failed to feature, and the last two matches he didn’t start have now both ended in a sobering 0:0 draw. 

If Mbappe isn’t available to provide the breakthrough in attack, France can at least rely upon a stellar defence to keep out their opponent. France have kept two cleansheets at the EUROS, with the all-encompassing N’Golo Kante playing himself into particular focus. Many questioned Didier Deschamps’ decision to recall Kante to the national team, but the 33-year-old has been sensational so far, becoming the first player to win two man-of-the-match awards at the tournament. 

While not mathematically eliminated, Poland, France’s upcoming opponents, face a mammoth task to make it out of Group D. Anything but a large win will see them sent home, and what awaits is a France side they have not beaten since 1984. Still, Michal Probierz’s side will no doubt fight until the bitter end, giving a good account of themselves so far despite having 0 points to show for it. 

Against the Netherlands, Poland took the lead and hung onto a point until the 83rd minute, while against Austria, Poland equalized after going behind, and only relinquished a point again after the hour mark. It may be hard to take positives from the opening two fixtures, but a potential positive omen comes in the form of Robert Lewandowski’s return to form. 

The center-forward entered the competition after suffering a hamstring injury, but remarkably, he managed to come on the pitch against Austria for the final half-hour. How fit and how much he can play are two big questions, but it is clear that Poland are a better side with Lewandowski in the side. The Barcelona forward is his nation’s captain, record appearance maker, and record goalscorer, with 4 of Poland’s last 7 goals at the European Championship coming courtesy of the 35-year-old. 

Prediction: France Win

Netherlands v Austria

Netherlands earned another important point in their EURO campaign, with the 0:0 draw with France taking them to 4 points in the groupstage. France were the dominant side, but Holland came closest to the 3 points after Xavi Simons seemingly scored the winner after 69 minutes. Unfortunately, VAR ruled out what would have been Simons’ only second international goal. 

All told, the Netherlands' big worry remains the lack of a prolific number nine on the roster. Memphis Depay has started the first two fixtures, but his performances have been as underwhelming as his entire season at club level. Depay scored just 5 goals in 23 La Liga fixtures, and he has scored only 1 goal in his last 8 tournament appearances. Talents Brian Brobbey and Joshua Zirkzee look unlikely to get a chance under Ronald Koeman, so it may be another starting opportunity for the towering Wout Weghorst when Holland run out at the Olympiastadion in Berlin on Tuesday. 

On Monday Austria had a performance worthy of applause via a narrow 1:0 defeat to France, and on Friday, Ralf Ragnick’s side went one better by recording their first win at the European Championships courtesy of a 3:1 victory over Poland. The match was characterized by crashing duels and hard-fought challenges, but it was ultimately the Austrian’s individual quality that won out with a few moments of individual brilliance. 

Chief amongst them was the go-ahead goal from Christoph Baumgartner in the 66th minute. The RB Leipzig midfielder has been a rotation player for his club side this season, but in the national team, the 24-year-old has blossomed into life since Rangnick’s appointment. Baumgartner has contributed an astonishing 6 goals and 2 assists in his last 7 appearances for Austria, a remarkable record when one takes into account the opposition and his role as a midfielder. 

While he didn’t get on the scoresheet, equally important was Austria’s midfield engine, Marcel Sabitzer. The 30-year-old enjoyed a year of steady development in Dortmund, culminating in a Champions League final in June. Sabitzer’s 2023 was riddled by injuries and a lack of form, but as the season progressed, he steadily grew into one of Dortmund’s key and most consistent performers. This remarkable form has also been seamlessly translated into the national team, with Sabitzer amongst the most impressive performers throughout Austria’s victory. Sabitzer completed the most dribbles on the pitch, took the most shots of any Austrian player, and won the penalty that led to Austria’s 3rd goal. 

Prediction: Austria Win

England v Slovenia

England are top of group B as expected, but the campaign has been anything but smooth sailing for Gareth Southgate so far. The performances have been shockingly passive even by Southgate’s predictable standard. For a side that boasts a glistening ensemble of attacking talent, England have looked like one of the most disjointed and unconvincing attacking outfits at the competition. England have registered just 16 shots across two fixtures, and after taking an early lead, The Three Lions have reverted into a defensive shell against both Serbia and Denmark. 

It is not as if Gareth Southgate doesn’t have the attacking talent to come off the bench and make a difference, but it seems like the 53-year-old is resolutely sticking to his guns, with a talent like Cole Palmer yet to play a minute in the tournament. The 22-year-old registered 33 goals and assists in the Premier League last season, but Southgate has refused to give him a sniff despite England’s undeniable attacking struggles. 

For Slovenia, it is a make-or-break fixture with just 2 points to their name. Should Slovenia bow out in the groupstage it will not be a defeat to England that leaves fans mournful, but rather the last-minute goal they conceded against Serbia on matchday 2. Slovenia took a 1:0 lead in the 69th minute and looked set for their first-ever 3 points at a European Championship. Yet, in the dying embers of the fixture, Serbia managed to float in a corner-kick that was dutifully headed home by Luka Jovic. 

In the blink of an eye, Slovenia went from virtually guaranteeing qualification to being left with a mammoth task to reach the knockout stages. To overcome England, Matjaž Kek’s side will need an inspired performance. Slovenia have never beaten the European giants, with the previous 6 meetings ending with 1 draw and 5 defeats.  But, history can only count for so much, with Slovenia’s more recent past giving them a confident outlook ahead of Tuesday’s encounter. Across their last 14 international fixtures, Slovenia have lost just once, and in the calendar year of 2024, they are yet to suffer defeat (3 wins - 4 draws). Perhaps it is finally time for Slovenia to make it to the knockout stages of an international tournament?!

Prediction: Slovenia Win

Denmark v Serbia

Though Denmark sit on shaky ground after taking just 2 points from their first 2 fixtures, the performance against England was a statement towards the rest of the competition at this summer’s European Championship. Kasper Hjulmand’s side were combative and ferocious, taking the game to an English outfit that lacked any level of creativity or attacking freedom. Denmark have still yet to beat England at a major tournament, but they came incredibly close on Thursday, with the Scandinavian outfit registering 16 shots to England’s 12, and even narrowly outplaying Southgate’s outfit with a greater portion of possession. 

Ultimately, the only player who managed to find a way past Jordan Pickford was Morten Hjulmand. The sensational long-range effort had the makings of a seasoned goalscorer, but Hjulmand is naturally anything but that. Hjulmand scored just 3 goals across 49 matches for Portuguese champions Sporting CP, and the effort against England was his very first goal for his nation! Denmark can’t expect Hjulmand to come up with another effort on Tuesday, but it would be awfully nice as they await a revitalized Serbian outfit. 

With seconds remaining in Munich Serbia looked to be inching closer to their 4th consecutive groupstage exit at a major tournament. Yet, a heroic stoppage-time header by Luka Jovic offers Serbia a lifeline in their pursuit of a top-3 finish. For Jovic, it is a particularly special moment given the difficult relationship he has had with the national team. The 26-year-old was frequently hung out to dry after failing to find his feet in Madrid, and in the ensuing years, the once prodigal son of Serbian football has never been able to establish himself as a true option in the nation’s best eleven. 

Nevertheless, Jovic has earned a reputation as a super-sub over the past 12 months. 4 of his 6 Serie A goals last season were scored after coming off the bench, while 2 of his last 4 in the national team were also scored after not starting the match. If Dragan Stojkovic should reward Jovic with a start is a question only the manager can answer, but there are some considerable arguments against the double-duo of Dusan Vlahovic and Aleksandar Mitrovic. 

Though he was voted the Serie A forward of the season, Dusan Vlahovic has struggled for form in Juventus and Serbia for months now. Vlahovic managed just one goal in his last 10 Serie A appearances, and for Serbia, he has failed to score in over 14 months. As for Aleksandar Mitrovic, the veteran striker is coming off a fantastic season for Al-Hilal - 28 goals in 28 Saudi Pro Leagues games -  and is Serbia’s all-time leading goalscorer - 58 goals in 94 appearances - but his European Championship has been underwhelming to keep it short. Mitrovic was hooked off after an hour in Serbia’s opening fixture, and against Slovenia, the 29-year-old missed a handful of chances that a striker of his quality should have certainly put away. 

Prediction: Denmark Win