EURO Matchday 14 Preview

The Round of 16 has arrived! Switzerland face Italy in a battle between two familiar foes. And hosts Germany face Denmark who are winless & unbeaten all at the same time!

The Round of 16 has arrived! Switzerland face Italy in a battle between two familiar foes. And hosts Germany face Denmark who are winless & unbeaten all at the same time!

Switzerland v Italy

Switzerland have managed to qualify for the knockout stage of a major international tournament for the 6th time in a row. It is a massive, underappreciated, feat for a nation of less than 9 million. Still, the sheer number of talented players that Switzerland are developing and bringing to top leagues in Europe should not be overlooked. In total, 30 Swiss players are currently playing in one of Europe’s top 5 leagues, while the entire starting eleven that Murat Yakın selected against Germany played in one of the big 5 divisions last season. 

That Switzerland don’t count upon the title candidates is clear, but the data suggests they have the quality to go toe-to-toe with Europe’s very best; ask Germany. Switzerland came within seconds of taking a 1:0 victory off of the hosts and spectacularly topping Group A. Germany were worth a point in the end, but Switzerland showed their enormous quality, with the talented Dan Ndoye opening the scoring in the 28th minute. 

Ndoye’s instinctive finish could provide a turning point in the 23-year-old’s career that has been hampered by a lack of quality in scoring positions. Ndoye is one of the most exciting forwards in Europe since breaking through at FC Lausanne-Sport, but he has never provided a killer instinct to truly grow into a reliable goalscoring forward. Before the match against Germany, Ndoye had failed to score in any of his 13 national team appearances, and across 32 Serie A matches for FC Bologna last season, Ndoye managed only 1 goal. Murat Yakın’s side are not reliant on Ndoye for scoring impact - all 4 of Switzerland’s goals at the European Championship have been scored by a different player - but having the youngster in top form could prove crucial as the Rossocrociati hope to venture past the round of 16 at an international tournament for only the second time this century. 

As for their opponents, Italy qualified for the round of 16 in enthralling fashion with a stoppage-time equaliser carrying them through. None of Luciano Spalletti’s 3 centre-forwards have managed to score at this summer’s competition, so it needed an unheralded star to come up with the goods in the 98th minute. Mattia Zaccagni had never scored for the Italian national team upon his introduction on Monday, but with only his 7th touch of the game the Lazio midfielder curled a delectable strike into the top corner. 

It has been a groupstage littered with sub-par performances and difficult forks on the road, but the reigning champions are into the knockout stage and will fancy their chances against a familiar foe. There is no opponent Italy have played more often against (61 games), and there is no opponent Italy have won more often against (29 wins). In fact, Italy’s last defeat to Switzerland was in 1993, with Italy failing to lose any of the subsequent 11 matches. 

Prediction: Switzerland Win

Germany v Denmark

Germany have achieved their bare minimum goal at Euro 2024 by qualifying out of Group A and reaching the knockout stages. The competition started with a bang after Florian Wirtz sent the Allianz Arena into raptures with 10 minutes played in the opening fixture, and it ended again with a euphoric explosion after Niclas Füllkrug headed home a 94th-minute equalizer against Murat Yakın’s Swiss outfit. However, in between there were also dull moments where Germany looked like a side that are still in the process of finding themselves. 

The defense still looks shaky in transition, and some individual performances have left a lot to be desired. Kai Havertz, for example, has struggled as Germany’s leading centre-forward. Nagelsmann has entrusted him to start all 3 matches, but the 25-year-old has delivered a mixed bag when leading the line. Havertz’s defensive work-rate and link-up play are a major positive, but his output in front of goal is yet to spark. From 9 shots he has managed just one goal from the penalty spot.  

The plot around Havertz only grows thicker when you consider who Germany are leaving on the bench. With his 94th-minute header, Niclas Füllkrug showed again why he is amongst the most impressive penalty box finishers in world football. It’s his 2nd goal in less than 80 minutes at EURO 2024, and already his 4th goal as a substitute at a major international tournament. Julian Nagelsmann will obviously be happy to bring such an impactful player off the bench, but there is also a serious debate about whether he shouldn’t earn his first start at an international tournament given that he has scored 13 goals in only 750 minutes for the national team!

Hoping to topple the hosts are Denmark. As many experts forecasted, Denmark finished second in Group B. However, the manner in which they have qualified for the knockout stages is far less convincing than what was expected of this squad. Denmark drew all 3 of their matches, scored only 2 goals, and only qualified ahead of Slovenia because they collected fewer yellow cards. 

37-year-old Kasper Schmeichel is the latest veteran goalkeeper to impress with two cleansheets and one man-of-the-match award, but the RSC Anderlecht shot-stopper can only do so much to compensate for an underwhelming front line. None of Denmark’s 4 centre-forwards have scored at this year’s competition, with the latest match against Serbia particularly worrying from an attacking standpoint. Denmark registered just 3 shots on target, with only one of these coming from a forward. 

Prediction: Germany Win