EURO Matchday 16 Preview

The 5th & 6th Round of 16 encounters are here France v Belgium has the makings of a final between two under-performers. Portugal are clear favorites, but can Slovenia continue their unbeaten run?

The 5th & 6th Round of 16 encounters are here France v Belgium has the makings of a final between two under-performers. Portugal are clear favorites, but can Slovenia continue their unbeaten run?

France v Belgium 

France kicked off the July portion of EURO 2024 with a fascinating encounter with Belgium in the Merkur Spiel-Arena in Düsseldorf. France, like many of the top nations at the tournament, have qualified for the round of 16 with underwhelming displays. Despite a flood of attacking riches, France have managed just two goals at this tournament; one from the penalty spot, and the other an own-goal. 

It is not for a lack of chance-creation - France have taken 43 shots, 13 of which were on target - but rather, an inefficiency from their forwards. Antoine Griezmann, for example, left huge opportunities on the table against the Netherlands, while Kylian Mbappé arguably had the miss of the tournament after shooting past the far post in an almost certain 1v1 duel with Austrian goalkeeper Patrick Pentz. The Real Madrid-bound superstar has generally been confronted with a difficult tournament. Mbappé broke his nose late on against Austria, spent 90 minutes on the bench against Holland, and was stifled from open play by Poland’s reserve goalkeeper Łukasz Skorupski. In the end, Mbappé took 5 shots on target against Skorupski, but it was only his penalty that found its way into the net. 

Hoping to keep Mbappé off the scoresheet for the second time this tournament are Belgium. The Red Devils, like France, endured a disappointing campaign that somehow ended with knockout-stage qualification. Domenico Tedesco’s side lost, won, and drew, with the final 0:0 versus Ukraine amongst the worst matches at the tournament. 

Belgium rarely tested Ukrainian goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin, with none of Tedesco’s illustrious forwards stepping up to the plate. Kevin de Bruyne was held remarkably quiet, but his Manchester City counterpart Jérémy Doku was the bigger disappointment on the night. Doku failed to register a single shot on target, and the so highly-lauded 1v1 specialist completed just 57% of his dribbles. For a player, and squad, of such undeniable quality, it has been a European Championship to forget thus far.

Prediction: France Win

Portugal v Slovenia

Portugal entered the final matchday with the potential to become only the second side after Spain to qualify for the knockout stage with a perfect record. Like their Iberian neighbors, Portugal heavily rotated the side to face Georgia, with only goalkeeper Diogo Costa, midfielder João Palhinha, and forward Cristiano Ronaldo remaining from the side which started against Turkey. The lack of routine showed in a disjointed Portugal performance. Roberto Martínez’s side mustered 22 shots, but just 5 of these found their way on target. 

Defensively, individual errors from the young António Silva ended up playing a crucial role in Georgia’s historic victory. Silva played an errant pass in the build-up for Georgia’s opener and then gave away a penalty in the second half. It is safe to say that Martínez will return to a more tried-and-trusted eleven when they line up in the Deutsche-Bank Park on Monday. 

As for Portugal’s opponents, they are a difficult side to judge. Depending on the perspective you take Slovenia have either been excellent or dreadful at this championship. Matjaž Kek’s side are one of only 7 nations to progress from the groupstage unbeaten, but they are also one of only two sides who have made it into the knockout stages without winning a match!

At the forefront of Slovenia’s first-ever knockout stage appearance is the exceptional continuity that Matjaž Kek has called upon. Slovenia have named an unchanged eleven in their 3 matches at the tournament, and only 19 of the 26-man squad have earned minutes on the pitch. Particularly the defence have profited from this routine selection, with the centerback pairing of Jaka Bijol and Vanja Drkušić playing a fundamental role in Slovenia’s success. Neither have the most commanding résumé at club level -  the former narrowly escaped relegation from the Serie A last season, while the latter finished last in the 2023/24 Russian Premier League  - but together, they have formed a formidable partnership that has conceded just 2 goals at this summer’s championship. 

Another key player for this defense has been Erik Janža. Were he not already 31, the Slovenian fullback would have made it on the radar of many big European clubs following his performances at these championships. He scored a brilliant long-range strike to equalise against Denmark, and his long-range passing, and even longer throw-in, are a constant source of creativity from fullback. Unfortunately, Janža picked up his second yellow card of the competition on Tuesday. His suspension could prove sizable, with Janža starting all but two matches for Slovenia in 2024. 

Prediction: Slovenia Win