FC Augsburg: The Bundesliga's Unfancied Over-Achievers

FC Augsburg have collected 35 points, & have won 4 consecutive Bundesliga matches for the first time since 2014. What has allowed one of the league's relegation candidates to speed towards Europe?

FC Augsburg are notoriously one of the most unspectacular Bundesliga outfits. Die Fuggerstädter boast a modest fanbase, rarely excite with an attacking brand of football, and hail from a city whose famed marionette theater and ancient medieval architecture transcend anything the local football club can offer. 

Yet, despite their unfavorable status, FC Augsburg are a deep-seated fixture of the modern Bundesliga. Augsburg have never been relegated since winning promotion in 2011, and only 7 clubs currently boast a longer unbroken chain of topflight campaigns. 

Fearful relegation scraps have never been far away - FCA have finished within 4 places of the relegation zone in 10 of their 12 topflight campaigns - but the last decade has provided sustained top-tier football to facilitate steady growth on and off the field. 

That development is now on the precipice of coming to fruition. FC Augsburg have collected 35 points after 26 matchdays, and have won 4 consecutive Bundesliga matches for the first time since 2014. Die Fuggerstädter have already collected more points than they managed across the entirety of the last campaign, and relegation fright has firmly been replaced by European aspirations. 

What has allowed one of the division’s relegation candidates to enter the final stretch of the season with the lofty dream of European football in-tact?

Continuity & Rejuvenated Identity 

There is no debating that Augsburg’s rise directly correlated with the managerial appointment of Jess Thorup. FC Augsburg have collected 30 points from Thorup’s 19 fixtures in charge. The Danish manager has taken Die Fuggerstädter from the relegation zone to UEFA Conference League aspirations within the space of 6 months.

Only 5 Bundesliga clubs have collected more points since Jess Thorup was appointed in October, 

Potentially the biggest positive from Jess Thorup’s appointment was the implementation and acceptance of a clear vision. Under his predecessor, Enrico Maaßen, FC Augsburg never embodied a clear principle of play or stylistic concept. Die Fuggerstädter could not control fixtures in possession, lacked the raw materials to hit sides in transition, and were mercilessly picked apart whenever a deep defensive block was prioritized. 

The underlying numbers from the previous season plainly highlight how problematic the (non-)development under Maaßen was. FC Augsburg finished in last place in the 2022/23 Bundesliga off the basis of Understat’s xPoints model that aggregates expected goals for and against for every fixture of the season. After 34 matchdays, no club conceded more high-quality chances, and only Union Berlin created fewer chances!

Thus, in many ways, the appointment of Thorup wasn’t a stroke of new-found genius, but rather, a vote in favor of stability and continuity for a squad in the midst of a prolonged identity crisis. Whereas Maaßen would constantly chop and change structure, personnel, and philosophy in search of solutions, Thorup has remained faithful to his ideal construct even as results and form fluctuated between December and early February.

Between the 9th of December and the 17th of February, FC Augsburg won just 1 of their 9 Bundesliga fixtures. Nevertheless, Jess Thorup never deviated from his matchplan. The Danish manager retained the back four structure throughout and generally trusted the same personnel. 

There is no better example of this than Thorup’s player selection. Across key positions on the pitch, Thorup has always remained consistent in his selection to forge synergy and chemistry. The strike duo of Philipp Tietz and Ermedin Demirović have started all 19 of Thorup’s Bundesliga matches, while the centerback duo of Jeffrey Gouweleeuw and Felix Uduokhai have marshaled the defense together in 17 of Thorup’s fixtures to date. By creating this unaltered dynamic, players can feed off of each other’s game and gain a deep appreciation for the unique movements and tendencies their partner holds. 

It is not to argue that continuity should take precedence over performance, but the factor of establishing synergy is something that Thorup’s predecessor - Enrico Maaßen - wholeheartedly failed to take into account. Only Schalke 04 used more different players than FC Augsburg in the previous Bundesliga season, and in his final 20 matches, Maaßen fielded the same lineup in back-to-back matches on only one occasion. 

Dynamic Transitions in a Diamond Midfield

Despite holding extraordinarily low possession throughout his tenure, Enrico Maaßen failed to find a suitable counter-attacking structure to make use of the limited opportunities Augsburg created each matchday. Die Fuggerstädter were one of only two Bundesliga outfits that failed to score a single counter-attacking goal last campaign, and less than 40% of their counter-attacks even ended in a shot. 

Rather than take on the mammoth task of overhauling the possession structure, Jess Thorup spent his resources on restructuring Augsburg’s threat in transition. This has come to fruition in the new year, with Thorup using the long winter break to move away from a 4-2-3-1 or 4-2-2-2 in favor of an even more narrow 4-1-3-2. 

The narrow midfield demands a lot from Augsburg’s fullbacks, but with two elite athletes in Kevin Mbabu and Iago, Thorup can take this risk to facilitate a strong defensive block in the middle of the pitch. With a numerical advantage in central zones, Augsburg have become prolific at winning loose balls and forcing turnovers in the midfield third. 

The data underlines this trend (above). Since the January switch from a 4-2-3-1 to a 4-3-1-2, Augsburg’s ability to contest and command second balls has shot through the roof. Compared to their season average, Augsburg are recovering possession on over 10 occasions more per game since the implementation of the diamond structure. More importantly, these ball wins are coming in key areas of the pitch where Augsburg can immediately pose a dynamic goal threat. Whereas before the formation adaptation, only 56% of Augsburg’s ball recoveries came in the final two-thirds of the pitch, since implementing the diamond midfield structure, these numbers have risen to over 64%.

The fact that Augsburg are winning possession more often has also seen their counter-attacking threat more than double since Thorup’s tactical tweak. The combination of winning play high up the pitch, and having substantial teammates around the ball, means Augsburg are substantially stronger at turning these counter–attacks into shots, and subsequently goals. 

An Elite Goalscorer, a Talented Super-Sub, & a Croatian Conductor

When considering key players in the FC Augsburg setup it is impossible to look past the attacking exploits of Ermedin Demirović. The 25-year-old Bosnian international has had a breakthrough campaign with 22 goal contributions. A staggering 51.2% of Augsburg’s league goals have either been scored or assisted by the club captain. In Europe’s top 5 leagues, only Harry Kane (FC Bayern) and Ante Budimir (CA Osasuna) have also surpassed the 50% mark. 

Though Demirović was already convincing before the arrival of Thorup, the Danish manager has forced another gear out of the influential center-forward. Whereas under Maaßen Demirović managed 12 goals in 37 appearances, under Thorup, the Bosnian international has already scored 10 times across 19 matches. 

The biggest change that facilitated Demirović’s scoring explosion is his efficiency in front of goal. The RB Leipzig academy graduate needs, on average, 2 fewer shots to score a goal for FC Augsburg under Jess Thorup. He is also taking his shots from better locations, highlighted by the fact that his average shot distance has declined by almost 1 meter since Thorup’s arrival.

Demirović is carrying the goalscoring burden at the WWK Arena, but Arne Engels - an exceptionally talented Belgian youth international - is another prospect who has added another layer to his game since Thorup’s arrival. Engels has started just 4 of Thorup’s 19 matches, yet the 20-year-old is flourishing in a substitute role. 

Since the managerial change in October, Engels has contributed 2 goals and 3 assists off the bench. Only Mathys Tel has more direct goal contributions as a substitute this season, a remarkable feat considering Engels is a midfielder or fullback playing for a club with a relatively average attacking output.

Finally, a more invisible presence keeping the entire structure together is Augsburg’s inspired January addition - Kristijan Jakić. The Eintracht Frankfurt loanee has blossomed into form in the all-important holding role of Thorup’s diamond midfield. His industrious work rate and ferocious defensive edge have provided a backbone for Augsburg’s more creative fulcrums to thrive in attacking passages of play. Jakić has completed the most tackles and interceptions (on a per 90 basis) in the FC Augsburg squad, and his impact against the ball has helped fortify the backbone of a defense that failed to keep a single cleansheet in the 17 matches proceeding his winter arrival.

With a 5.00m option to-buy clause, it seems self-evident that Jakić will sign permanently with FC Augsburg when his loan spell expires in the summer. 

With a win against FC Köln on Saturday, FC Augsburg can potentially make history with their first 5-match winning streak in Bundesliga history. Die Fuggerstädter remain a work in progress, but with Jess Thorup at the helm, there is a clear plan in place to elevate Augsburg into European competition for the first time in almost a decade. 

The Danish manager has reinvigorated the club with a clear structure against the ball and in transition. He is also getting the best out of individual talent by forging synergy on the pitch through an approach that values continuity both on a personnel and systemic basis. 

Fears still linger around the futures of key personnel like Demirović and Felix Udokhai, but if Augsburg manages to retain this talent, whilst bolstering the squad in the problem areas at left-back and central midfield, there is nothing to speak against FCA becoming a regular fixture in the Bundesliga’s top half.