FC Köln: The Preview

The Bundesliga season is just a matter of days away, so it’s time to preview every side ahead of another exciting campaign.

Today Neel Shelat joins us to discuss FC Köln

The Story of Last Season:

Undoubtedly, the 2021/22 season was one of the best in FC Köln’s recent history. They accumulated their highest-ever points tally in the top-flight in the three points for a win era, and their seventh-placed finish was enough to secure European football for this season.

That was quite a turnaround for a side that only avoided relegation in 2020/21 by beating Holstein Kiel in the play-off. New manager Steffen Baumgart certainly deserves a lot of credit for this, as he has instilled an energetic and fast-paced style of play that thoroughly entertained fans and neutrals alike... as did his flat caps.

All is not rosy for the Billy Goats, though. While they have undeniably made some massive improvements from the previous few seasons, the underlying numbers suggest that a European spot was perhaps more than their performance merited. Their xGD (Expected Goal Difference – the difference between their Expected Goals accumulated and Expected Goals conceded) was negative, and they would finish in the bottom half of the table purely based on that.

Nonetheless, it was a great season for Köln, and I doubt any of their fans will resist a European tour purely because they overperformed their xGD.

The Star Player:

For many of the other teams, it could be tough to pick out a single star player. For FC Köln, though, it is fairly easy – Anthony Modeste.

The 34-year-old striker is a cult hero in Köln now, and was one of the main protagonists behind their Europa Conference League qualification. His achievements from the 2021/22 campaign include notching 20 Bundesliga goals - joining an elite list that includes Robert Lewandowski, Erling Haaland and Christopher Nkunku - and more importantly, snatching the flat cap off his manager’s head.

ESPN FC @ESPNFC

Anthony Modeste took his manager's hat to celebrate. Incredible 😂👏

Baumgart was not particularly humoured when that happened, but he surely would have enjoyed Modeste’s goals. The French striker’s statistics also highlight the caveat of xG overperformance, but he outperformed his tally of 17.3 by just 2.7, so there are no signs that suggest he will suffer any major drop-offs if he can stay fit.

The fact that Modeste scored well over a third of his team’s league goals – more than both Lewandowski and Haaland in percentage terms – tells you all you need to know about his importance to this Köln side.

The U23 One to Watch: