The Race for Promotion in the Zweite Bundesliga
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The Race for Promotion in the Zweite Bundesliga
The Zweite Bundesliga is notoriously one of the most competitive divisions in Europe. In the race for promotion, just 10 points separate 1st from 5th. Who has what it takes, & who will come up short?
The Zweite Bundesliga is notoriously one of the most competitive divisions in Europe.
This year is no different.
In the race for promotion, just 10 points separate 1st from 5th, while in the battle against the drop, only 5 points are keeping last place Jahn Regensburg (18th) from overtaking Hansa Rostock in 10th.
The ever-changing relegation battle will surely get an article at some point, but for now, let’s take a look at the 5 clubs vying for the Bundesliga.
Where do they have what it takes, and where could they potentially come up short?
* PLEASE NOTE: Spots 1 & 2 earn automatic promotion to the Bundesliga. The 3rd place side competes in a home & away fixture against the side that finished in 16th (third from bottom) in the topflight. There are still 14 matches to play in the Zweite Bundesliga season.
SV Darmstadt
Why They Will be Promoted
This season, SV Darmstadt are not only back in the promotion race, but leading the way in historic fashion.
Leaving aside a 2:0 defeat to Jahn Regensburg on the very first match of the season, Darmstadt have been practically perfect this campaign. They have taken 13 wins and 6 draws from their last 19 outings.
Since Eintracht Braunschweig in 2013, no second-tier side has ever picked up this many points after 20 matchdays, and across all of Europe, Darmstadt’s 19-match unbeaten streak is something to marvel at.
Only Le Havre, in the French Ligue 2, are longer unbeaten in the first & second divisions of England, Spain, Italy, France, and Germany.
Extreme efficiency, a superb defense, and a manager renowned for his promotion expertise have all played a role in this formidable Darmstadt season. But, more than anything, Die Lillien are flying high because of the vast experience on the roster.
The 26 players in the Darmstadt roster combine for more than 100 seasons and almost 2,000 matches in the Zweite Bundesliga. It’s the absolute top quota in the division and shows why this side seems vastly capable of overcoming any and all obstacles placed in their path.
Why They Will Stumble
It seems far-fetched to think that this dominant Darmstadt outfit will now suddenly sputter out of form given the significant 8-point buffer after almost 60% of the season played.
It should be noted, however, that Darmstadt’s form crisis also appeared at precisely this point last season.
Darmstadt failed to win 8 of their final 14 matches between matchday 21 and 34 last season. In that 14-match stretch, Lieberknecht’s side lost just as many matches as they had done over the first 20 fixtures.
This time around, even a startling collapse could be accounted for, but should some key players drop away with injury, there may just be a faint chance that the wheels truly come off.
It is the wildly unpredictable Zweite Bundesliga after all!
Hamburger SV
Why They Will be Promoted
For the first time in more than a decade, Hamburger SV have continuity in the managerial dugout.
Despite this being their 5th consecutive season in Germany’s second tier, 47-year-old Tim Walter is the very first manager to survive a failed promotion attempt with Die Rothosen.
Going even further back to the club’s desperate fall from grace only further highlights how remarkable it is that Walter has now lasted nearly 600 days on the job.
Since Thorsten Fink’s 701-day tenure between 2011 and 2013, 14 managers have been appointed at HSV in less than 10 years (see below).
That Walter has not only survived, but also seen his contract prematurely extended, goes to show what a remarkable job the former Holstein Kiel and VfB Stuttgart manager is doing with this HSV squad.
Countless individuals that entered his reign as average second-tier talents now look destined for the Bundesliga, while his hands-on coaching has gotten the absolute most out of young starlets like Ludovit Reis, and Ransford-Yeboah Königsdörffer.
It's not the first time that HSV have entered February with promotion on the horizon, but one truly has the sense that this is the most unified and prepared the squad has looked since tumbling down to the second tier nearly 6 years ago.
Why They Will Stumble
Regardless if HSV had Robert Lewandowski leading the line, Joshua Kimmich dictating the tempo in midfield, and Dayot Upamecano anchoring the defense, there would still be a handful of fans who wouldn’t fancy the club’s prospects of reaching the topflight.
It took an almighty failure for “the Bundesliga dinosaur” to finally tumble out of the topflight, but returning the club to its Bundesliga status has proven unimaginably difficult.
Despite spending more than 65% of their second-tier history in a promotion spot, HSV have always failed to make it over the line. Often, they have stumbled at the most crucial part of the campaign.
Of the 40 matches HSV have contested between matchday 25 and matchday 34 in the Zweite Bundesliga, Hamburg have drawn or lost on 25 occasions. Regardless of how good things look up to this point, escaping an end-of-season collapse will prove crucial for the club’s promotion prospects.
1. FC Heidenheim
Why They Will be Promoted
HSV finally have a semblance of continuity in the managerial dugout, but if one really wants to find longevity, there is no better place to look than 1. FC Heidenheim.
Since 2007 Frank Schmidt has been managing his boyhood club, overseeing a rise from the amateur 5th tier to within a goal of the Bundesliga in 2020.
With a tiny budget, and the smallest stadium in the Zweite Bundesliga, Heidenheim aren’t your traditional heavyweight battling for a topflight return, but rather, a perfect outsider who is seemingly always in contention.
Playing solid, and mature football, Heidenheim grind out results in convincing fashion.
They are not always capable of grand victories - winning only 50% of their fixtures this season - but the difficulty sides face in taking 3-points provides the platform for Heidenheim’s promotion.
After 20 matchdays, FCH have lost just 3 matches.
In the top 3 tiers of German football, only FC Bayern and SV Darmstadt have suffered fewer defeats.
Why They Will Stumble
Perhaps the best compliment you could give Heidenheim is that they seem to be operating like SC Freiburg on a smaller scale. Heidenheim are developing talent, remaining consistent in their results, constantly reinventing the roster, and doing all this under the guise of one managerial constant.
Nevertheless, the one step that has alluded Frank Schmidt’s side is crossing the line into the Bundesliga. Heidenheim’s ability to beat top sides is probably the biggest hurdle they must overcome.
In Heidenheim’s 5 encounters against the current top 5 in the Bundesliga 2, Schmidt’s side have come out on top only once.
This same trend was also the biggest reason Heidenheim fell away last season. They dominated the bottom half, but consistently dropped valuable points against the direct competition in the top third.
In comparison to last season, this is a relatively weak 2nd Bundesliga, but even if Heidenheim can squeeze into third, this issue will remain profound.
In the last 10 playoffs, the Bundesliga side has come out on top on 9 occasions, and the fact that Heidenheim leads the second Bundesliga in distance covered, intensive runs, and total sprints, means there is a strong likelihood that they will be worn to pieces by the time the most crucial matches of the campaign come around.
SC Paderborn
Why They Will be Promoted
For exciting, attacking, football, there is no better venue in Germany than the awfully named Home Deluxe Arena.
There, SC Paderborn regularly put on a show, playing with unbridled bravery that sees them score with alarming regularity.
After 20 matchdays, SC Paderborn already have 44 goals to their name. It’s a feat only bettered by FC Bayern in the top two divisions of German football.
Like Der Rekordmeister leading the top flight, such a strong attacking output comes from Paderborn’s ability to dictate and dominate fixtures.
Only HSV has held more possession in this season’s second tier, and SCP’s ability to carve out nearly 15 shots a game is a statistic that is once again only bettered by FC Bayern.
Paderborn have suffered 7 defeats already - as many as SV Darmstadt, FC Heidenheim, and FC Kaiserslautern combined - but even this shouldn’t be too much of an issue looking forward to the final 14 matchdays.
Between matchday 13 and 17, SC Paderborn didn’t win a single game, crawling into the World Cup break by taking just 1 point from 5 matches.
Luckily, the nearly 80-day lay-off allowed SC Paderborn to refocus, and they have come back firing with 3 wins from 3 matches.
Why They Will Stumble
When Lukas Kwasniok’s side slices through opponents, it’s hard to argue that Paderborn aren’t amongst the very finest outfits the Zweite Bundesliga has to offer.
Nevertheless, what generally appears as bravery, can also quickly transform itself into naivety and carelessness.
On numerous occasions, SC Paderborn have lost possession in crucial areas by insisting on a short-passing game that plays into an opponent’s press. It gives the opposition easy opportunities to expose a backline that is unorganized and in an expansive formation.
The numbers also reflect what the eye can see.
Compared to the other 4 clubs analyzed today, SC Paderborn have conceded the most goals from counter-attacking opportunities, while not a single side in the second tier concedes a larger percentage of their shots from inside the penalty box.
These defensive faults are clearly a by-product of Kwasniok’s attacking blueprint, but there is also something to be said for the squad’s inexperience playing a role.
Bar forward Robert Leipertz and centerback Uwe Hünemeier, not a single player is over the age of 28, and, 24-year old Ron Schallenberg is the youngest club captain in the second tier.
If this squad stays in-tact, Paderborn will be one of the favorites for promotion next season, but given the substantial 6-point gap to second place, and the fluctuating performances throughout, this season may end up coming too soon for SCP to make a Bundesliga return.
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Why They Will be Promoted
The 4 time Bundesliga winners from Rhineland-Palatinate have finally returned to a state of prominence this season.
After wallowing away in the third tier for 4 years - and nearly getting relegated to the regional amateur leagues in 2020 - Kaiserslautern were finally been promoted back to the second tier over the summer.
While still a ways away from their historical presence in the Bundesliga, the euphoria with which the fanbase has greeted the second-tier return would make you think that you are watching a side on course for a European treble.
Only HSV have attracted more spectators this season, with almost 400,000 fans making the trip to the Fritz-Walter Stadion for one of Kaiserslautern’s 10 home matches this season.
Even away from home, this powerful 12th man has regularly made the difference. Die Rotten Teufel (the Red Devils) have lost just one of their 10 away matches, relying on the traveling fan base to outnumber the home contingent.
Along with their tremendous fanbase, Kaiserslautern have also exceeded expectations due to the risk-averse playstyle that Dirk Schuster has implemented.
In many senses, they remind one of Union Berlin.
Only relegation-threatened Eintracht Braunschweig have held less possession, but Kaiserslautern are masterful in transition, scoring the most counter-attack goals in the division.
Add to this a strong set-piece presence, and a veteran squad that includes a former World Cup winner, a 14-time US international, a forward with over 250 Ligue 1 appearances, and the starting goalkeeper for the third-best defense in the Bundesliga last season, and you quickly see why Kaiserslautern have the potential to be an outside force in the promotion battle.
Why They Will Stumble
Dirk Schuster’s side are incredibly hard to beat this campaign.
However, actually winning matches is what has proven difficult. On 8 occasions, Kaiserslautern have split points this season.
It is the joint-most of any club in the top two divisions of German football, and rather disheartening given that Die Roten Teufel need to make up 7 points to overtake HSV in second place.
Furthermore, the club’s extreme team spirit, powerful 12th-man, and solid defensive qualities have taken them far, but it is becoming increasingly apparent the difficulties Kaiserslautern have with fashioning high-quality shooting chances.
Of the 9 sides in the top half of the table, only Hannover 96 have taken fewer shots than Kaiserslautern, and there is a reliance on forward Terrence Boyd.
The veteran American forward has scored more than twice as many goals as any other player in the roster, and he was even the club’s top goalscorer last season despite only arriving in January with more than half the season gone.
The Verdict
While you can never take anything for granted in the second Bundesliga, SV Darmstadt will be playing in the Bundesliga next season given their impressive, and consistent, run of form.
Following them in second is slightly trickier, but I do believe that at the 5th time of asking, HSV will have enough to go back up. The stability from retaining Walter over the summer has given this club a massive boost, and their pure individual quality is enough to win most matches this season.
Third is the trickiest proposition.
Kaiserslautern are a beautiful enigma in the second tier, but one has the sense that Schuster is already getting the absolute most out of his side. It’s hard to foresee them turning enough draws into wins to bridge the substantial gap to third place.
Heidenheim, currently in third, are perhaps the front-runner, but I too fear that they don’t have the depth and wherewithal to withstand this form for the remainder of the campaign. Their running stats are incredible, but also unsustainable.
That leaves SC Paderborn in third. Kwasniok’s side are not the finished product, but their attack is outstanding and other than the pre-World Cup dip, they have been one of the strongest sides in the division this campaign.
I fear for their defense in a promotion play-off, but across two legs, they will be extremely competitive and up for any contest.
The Race for Promotion in the Zweite Bundesliga
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